NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Time is running out for closer Billy Wagner on Baseball Hall of Fame bubble

There are NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centereight closers enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame, in Cooperstown, New York.

Only three have been elected since 2009 − Trevor Hoffman (2018), Mariano Rivera (2019) and Lee Smith (2019).

Billy Wagner, a flame-throwing left-hander and one of baseball's elite closers during his era, now awaits his turn to join the exclusive club.

Despite his 5-foot-10 frame, Wagner overpowered batters with a deadly 100-mph fastball, complementing it with a slider in the high-80s.

Over 16 seasons − nine of them with the Houston Astros − Wagner logged 422 career saves, sixth-most all time and just two shy of John Franco's mark for left-handed relievers.

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His 2.31 ERA over 903 innings is the second-lowest in the modern era for pitchers with at least 900 innings, second to all-time saves leader Rivera (2.21).

Wagner was a seven-time All-Star and won the 1999 National League Rolaids Relief Man of the Year, which goes to the best reliever in each league.

Now, he sits on the ballot for the ninth time, hoping to get the 75% of votes needed for induction into Cooperstown.

The case for Billy Wagner

Wagner's 422 career saves, which ranks sixth all-time, should stand for itself. From 1997-2010, Wagner's 413 saves were third-most behind Rivera and Hoffman. But let's dive into how he overpowered hitters at the plate.

He compiled 1,196 strikeouts and struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings, the best rate of any pitcher with at least 900 innings since 1900. He struck out 33.2% of batters he faced.

He also had a 0.998 walks-plus-hits per innings pitched − the second-best all time among all pitchers − and held opponents to a .187 batting average against him.

Lastly, his 2.31 ERA as a reliever is lower than those of Hoffman, Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers and Hoyt Wilhelm − all of whom are Hall of Famers.

The case against Billy Wagner

Wagner was undoubtedly one of the best ninth-inning men in history, but found himself overshadowed by his contemporaries, namely Rivera and Hoffman. In fact, his 422 career saves are considerably less than Rivera (652) and Hoffman (601).

And he never once led the league in saves.

Also, no pitcher has ever been elected having thrown fewer than 1,000 innings − excluding Satchel Paige, who didn't pitch in the majors until he was 42. Wagner logged only 903 innings over 853 career appearances. Bruce Sutter, who took 13 years on the ballot to garner enough votes, has the fewest innings pitched (1,042).

Voting results

Wagner is making his ninth appearance on the ballot. He has seen a steady climb in votes since 2018 – becoming one of three players to gain mention on more than half the ballots last year outside Scott Rolen. The other two: outfielder Andruw Jones (58.1%) and outfielder Gary Sheffield (55.0%).

Wagner's Hall of Fame voting results (75% needed for induction):

• 2016: 10.5%
• 2017: 10.2%
• 2018: 11.1%
• 2019: 16.7%
• 2020: 31.7%
• 2021: 46.4%
• 2022: 51.0%
• 2023: 68.1%

Reasonable outlook

It's looking very promising for Wagner. After getting less than 17% of the vote from 2016-19, Wagner has seen his vote share increase dramatically, peaking at 68.1% of the vote last year. And with nearly half the estimated ballots recorded, Wagner is sitting at 79.5% of the vote, just over the 75% needed to gain induction.

If he falls short, Wagner has one more year on the ballot.